EUR/USD: better offered below 1.1000 and towards 30 year uptrend

EUR/USD broke below the 1.10 handle on Trump winning the US elections that boosted to US dollar across the board.

While the attention had been on Brexit and then the US elections, there are now some major key political events coming up now in Europe. 

"While relative real yield differentials aren't pointing to Euro weakness at this point and while any return of risk aversion could easily trigger Euro strength if capital outflows are questioned, I'm resigned to the Euro trading in the bottom half of the last 18 months' range against the dollar until the threat of populist parties gaining power in the Eurozone fades," explained Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale who continued, "The French centre-right primary vote matters, the Italian referendum matters more, and the French Presidential election matters most of all, though the Dutch election next year isn't a small hurdle either. I look at French polls and the national front seem far too far behind to have a realistic chance of staging an upset. And even in Italy, with not one but two populist parties, the outlook seems more shambolic than explosive; but the direction in which the tide is going is pretty clear and not being cautious would be silly."

EUR/USD levels

EUR/USD fell just inches short of the 1.0821 March low that guards the 1.0682 30 year uptrend and the 2015- 2016 uptrend at 1.06. "The 55 day ma at 1.0974 will now offer immediate resistance ahead of 1.1123/40 – the August and September lows," argued analysts at Commerzbank, adding, "Long term targets 1.0685/1.0457, the 32 year support line and recent lows. Further down lies 1.0000, .9900 (psychological support and 78.6% retracement of the move 2000 to 2008)."