US: Consensus looks for a 0.3% gain in home sales - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the US releases existing home sales data, but an extension of the dollar rally really needs help from bond-land.

Key Quotes

“Stronger Asian equities help in that regard, but it’s a break of 1.8% in 10- yuear treasuries which is probably the key to unlock a more meaningful dollar rally. The consensus looks for a 0.3% gain in home sales to a 5.34mln rate; SG economists look for +1.8% to 5.42mln, but we might need more than that to really get things moving.

The market is increasingly comfortable with the idea of a December Fed Funds hike, but is pricing the chances of a Fed Funds rate above 1% at the end of next year down at 14% now from near 25% a month ago.”