ECB: Extension to the programme beyond March is possible today, but improbable - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that today’s big event could be today’s big non-event as an announcement of an extension to the ECB programme beyond March is possible today, but improbable.

Key Quotes

“More likely, a decision is delayed until December and we get soothing words and a lot of questions at the press conference instead. The market, expecting little, is open to surprises and today, at least, there’s more room for EUR/USD to fall than bounce.

Relative rates/yields suggest a move to 1.08 is about all we can expect unless we get a very big jump in equity volatility. Longer term, we still see the risk of a slow grind lower as a central case and think a bigger, more violent move higher, is being a bigger risk than a big fall (to new lows in EUR/USD).”