Market Wrap: markets stabilised as risk-off flows recede - Westpac

Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac, summarizes Wednesday's price action, noting that markets stabilised overnight, following the nervous session yesterday, with the S&P500 up 0.5% and US interest rates are higher. The FOMC minutes and news of more UK property fund freezes had little market impact.

Market Wrap

Global market sentiment: Markets stabilised overnight, following the nervous session yesterday afternoon. The S&P500 is up 0.5% and US interest rates are higher. The FOMC minutes and news of more UK property fund freezes had little market impact.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury yields bounced off a record low of 1.32% to 1.39%. 2yr yields rose from 0.53% to 0.59%. Market pricing of the Fed firmed slightly, implying a 0-5% chance of a rate hike in September, a 10% chance by December, and a 50% by Dec 2017. FOMC member Tarullo said the Fed is watching Brexit, suggesting no rush to hike rates at this juncture.

Currencies:  The US dollar index fell slightly. EUR rose from 1.1044 to 1.1112. GBP bounced off the 31-year low of 1.2798 made yesterday afternoon to 1.3016. USD/JPY initially fell to 100.20 but rebounded to 101.45, the safe-haven yen underperforming. AUD extended its rebound from 0.7440 to 0.7519 and was the outperformer on the day. NZD also rebounded, from 0.7080 to 0.7135. AUD/NZD rose from 1.0465 to 1.0548.  

Economic Wrap

The FOMC minutes from the 14-15 June meeting were mostly in line with the SEP projections/dot plot and Chair Yellen's narrative for that meeting - cautious yet hopeful. "Many" in FOMC were reluctant to change their forecast on one weak jobs report, though almost all said the weak jobs data raised uncertainty. It was considered prudent to await the outcome of the UK referendum, though most still expected gradual rate rises. There’s not much new here, and given the meeting pre-dates the UK Brexit vote, is somewhat stale.

US services PMIs were firmer than expected. The ISM version was 56.5 (vs 53.3 expected), while the Markit version was 51.4 (vs 51.3 expected). The service sector is benefitting from boosts to household purchasing power.

Economic Event Risks Today

NZ: RBNZ Dep. Governor Spencer speaks on housing at 5:30pm NZT. NZ markets will watch closely for any signals regarding timing and form of the next set of macro-prudential restrictions.

US: The ADP private sector payrolls report holds little value as an indicator for the more important non-farm payrolls.

China: FX reserves have been broadly stable in recent months after a material fall around the turn of year. June is likely to see a modest outflow, circa $25bn.