AUD/USD: failures apparent at key resistance, 200 dma next stop?
AUD/USD has been rejected at 0.7505 this week on a double top, but has found a footing just below the 4hr 20 sma at 0.7435 on broad based dollar weakness and an RBA that remains vigilant and on hold.
The yield spreads are one supporting factor while commodities, gold in the main, have been supporting the bid as well. However, copper has yet again diverged from the correlation on a supply driven market while the yen remains better bid.
However, the dollar has saved face today to some degree, Initial claims beat expectations at 264K, taking the 4-Week Average to 269.5K from 277K. Tomorrow's Consumer Confidence by the Reuters/Michigan index is up tomorrow to close down the week.
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD has breached the 50% retracement and the 55 day ma." It here that we suspect the up move to start to struggle," explained analysts at Commerzbank. "Failure here should cast attention back to the 200 day ma (0.7259). Above 0.7505 will see a deeper retracement to 0.7572 and potentially 0.7688, the 78.6% retracement of the sell off from April."