UK EU referendum: One month countdown begins – Deutsche Bank

Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that today marks the one month countdown to the UK EU referendum date.

Key Quotes

“As per Reuters, an opinion poll from Opinium on behalf of the Observer newspaper became the sixth poll out of the last seven to be published which has shown the ‘Remain’ campaign as coming out on top.

The results from the online poll showed that 44% would vote to stay in the EU with the leave campaign at 40%. The same pollster had the split at 42% and 41% respectively at the end of last month. Indeed our UK rates strategists (Jack DiLizia) now note that implied probabilities from bookmakers’ odds are tilted heavily in favour of a vote to remain, with the probability of a Remain outcome now at 82% which is up 4% from the prior week.

That said much of the commentary - as highlighted by Reuters - is still suggesting that there is still a difference between the outcomes of telephone polls and online polls with the former tending to show a larger lead for the ‘Remain’ campaign, while the latter tend to show a much closer race. It’s worth noting that from this Friday (27th) the pre-referendum ‘purdah’ period kicks in which restricts the ability for those connected to government to campaign for either outcome. So it’s possible some of the noise around the campaign dies down as a result.”