View on next week’s key data and events - ING

Research Team at ING, suggests that following a strong first quarter in Germany, Ifo and ZEW readings will shed some light on how severe any slowdown in the second quarter could be.

Key Quotes

“More interestingly, however, will be the Eurogroup meeting next week, where Eurozone finance ministers will at least try to get Greece temporarily out of the danger zone

EMEA

The central bank meetings in Turkey and Hungary will be the main focus, where we expect the CBT to be more cautious and consider a 25bp cut in the upper band, while keeping other policy rates unchanged. However, a change is unlikely given the recent political risks following PM Davutoglu’s decision to step down. The NBH is expected to cut the rate by 15bp, but the main event will be the press release, which can give us a hint about the next steps of the MPC. Our base-case scenario is another last cut in June, but risks are tilted towards the hawkish side.

LATAM and Asia

In Asia, Singapore and Taiwan will release revised 1Q16 GDP data, but more importantly in focus is their April industrial data for what it will say about 2Q16 growth. The adverse shock to global manufacturing intensified in early 2016, and prolonged weakness will undermine the countries’ official 2016 GDP growth forecasts. Next week, we expect a cut in Taiwan’s official growth forecast from 1.47% (-0.8% YoY in 1Q16) but no change to Singapore’s 1-3% forecast (1.8% in 1Q16).”