UK labour market likely continued its slow pace - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the UK labour market likely continued its slow pace of improvement in the three months to March.

Key Quotes

“We expect a tick down in the unemployment rate to 5.0% (consensus: 5.1%) after four months at 5.1%, in part because the 3mma drops the relatively punchy 5.3% monthly estimate for December. Annual wage pressures likely remained relatively unchanged in the three months to March: we expect ex-bonus headline pay to register 2.3% 3m/y (as consensus), while the more important core private sector ex-bonus wages softens slightly to 2.4% 3m/y. Bonuses will distort the headline figure, so ignore any miss.

Separately, the Queen’s Speech will be delivered to Parliament, outlining the Conservative government’s legislative intentions over upcoming parliamentary year. The date was moved up to coincide with the EU Referendum campaign, and while it’s unlikely to include anything too controversial, it will probably contain a few sweeteners to lure the Leave crowd.”