US: Focus on retail sales and consumer confidence – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that after yesterday's eventful day, focus today turns to the US in the form of retail sales figures for April and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey in May.

Key Quotes

“Retail sales data for April will be important as our expectations (and the Fed's) of a rebound in GDP growth in Q2, following the weak GDP growth in Q1, are based on a rebound in private consumption growth. The retail sales control group is expected to increase 0.4% m/m in April from 0.1% m/m in March.

US consumer confidence has fallen for four consecutive months according to the University of Michigan consumer survey but is still at a relatively high level. Although it is natural that consumer confidence has fallen from the previous high level, consumers need to stay optimistic as private consumption is the main US growth driver. Consumer confidence is expected to increase to 89.5 in May from 89.0 in April. Consumers' long-term inflation expectations, which fell back to a record-low 2.5% y/y in April, might also attract some attention.”