29 Apr 2016
US: Key events for next week - Lloyds Bank
Analysts from Lloyds Bank take a look into next week key events in the US that include the release of the employment report.
Key Quotes:
“A bounteous slew of US Fed speakers may provide a bit more colour on Wednesday’s policy statement, which markets interpreted as being relatively dovish for the timing of the next hike. Markets now attach only a 12% probability of a June rate rise and about a 60% probability of any rise at all this year.”
“With the exception of New York Fed’s Dudley (Mon), the speakers are of a more hawkish bent than Fed Chair Yellen. They include Cleveland Fed’s Mester (Tue) and St Louis Fed’s Bullard (Thu/Fri), both of whom are voting members this year. There is a risk, therefore, that markets may partially reassess their dovish take on the Fed statement. This is especially the case if the US labour market report (Fri) continues to show strong employment growth which would tally with further declines in the weekly jobless claims numbers.”
“We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 215k in April and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.9%. Such outturns would contrast with the somewhat weaker signals for wider economic activity and fuel the debate about whether consistently weak Q1 GDP reports in recent years in the US reflect.”
Key Quotes:
“A bounteous slew of US Fed speakers may provide a bit more colour on Wednesday’s policy statement, which markets interpreted as being relatively dovish for the timing of the next hike. Markets now attach only a 12% probability of a June rate rise and about a 60% probability of any rise at all this year.”
“With the exception of New York Fed’s Dudley (Mon), the speakers are of a more hawkish bent than Fed Chair Yellen. They include Cleveland Fed’s Mester (Tue) and St Louis Fed’s Bullard (Thu/Fri), both of whom are voting members this year. There is a risk, therefore, that markets may partially reassess their dovish take on the Fed statement. This is especially the case if the US labour market report (Fri) continues to show strong employment growth which would tally with further declines in the weekly jobless claims numbers.”
“We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 215k in April and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.9%. Such outturns would contrast with the somewhat weaker signals for wider economic activity and fuel the debate about whether consistently weak Q1 GDP reports in recent years in the US reflect.”