Brexit: Worse for the UK than the rest of the EU - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that an ICM poll on the UK’s EU membership vote yesterday gave the ‘leave’ side one of its best results so far, at 45%, compared to 42% to remain in the EU.

Key Quotes

“The FT’s ‘poll of polls’ runs at 43- 42 in favour of staying. The result remains too close to call, yet polls in City(and bookmakers’ odds) still show a strong view that the UK will eventually opt to stay in the EU. Sterling was knocked back a little, losing gains from an upside surprise in the CPI data, but this was the first time that the Euro appeared to react negatively, which is noteworthy. ‘Brexit’ would be worse for the UK than the rest of the EU, but it would undoubtedly be bad for all of Europe’s economic prospects.”