UK March headline inflation expected at 0.2% y/y - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that there were sharp cuts to many gas providers’ prices in March, but it’s not clear if the ONS will pick them up in March’s or April’s CPI release.

Key Quotes

“We assume March, which would weigh on headline CPI and offset gains in petrol prices, leaving headline inflation at 0.2% y/y, while the core measure increases two ticks to 1.3%, partly reflecting weakness in sterling in recent months. The early Easter holiday could lead to a temporary boost to travel services prices, and is something to watch for. An upside surprise in headline inflation will unwind in April if the gas prices didn’t make it into the data.”