USD/CAD to end 2016 at 1.30 - Lloyds

Analysts from Lloyds Bank, expect the USD/CAD to rise toward 1.35, but then as crude oil recovers is forecast to end the year at 1.30.

Key Quotes:

“Similar to other commodity currencies, USD/CAD has been rangebound recently – trading between 1.28 and 1.33. The currency pair has been influenced by the shifting tone of US o6fficials. Chair Yellen has been relatively dovish, although other members (including Bullard, Rosengren and George) have been more upbeat.”

“Oil prices also remain an important driver - Brent has rallied back above $40/bbl after recent API and US DoE data releases showed unexpected drawdowns in inventories. The Canadian economic outlook remains positive, with GDP and retail sales both beating consensus expectations in March.”

“Given the fundamental backdrop, we expect the BoC to maintain its current policy stance at April’s meeting, with Governor Poloz’s likely to maintain an optimistic tone.”

“In the short term, given our expectation of a rate hike from the Fed in June, we anticipate a retracement in USD/CAD to 1.35. But subsequently, CAD should receive more sustained support from rising oil prices. Our base case is for oil prices to rise towards $55/bbl and for USD/CAD to trade to 1.30 by end-2016.”