15 Feb 2016
Key EM's: South Africa's CPI coming up - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities explained that on Wednesday, South Africa January CPI data will be released.
Key Quotes:
"The consensus is looking for headline to jump to 6.0% Y/Y from a prior 5.2%, driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects; higher food price inflation as a result of the drought; and the effects of prior rand weakness.
On the other hand, the consensus expects core inflation to move only modestly higher to 5.3% Y/Y from a prior 5.2%. According to the SARB’s latest forecasts, headline inflation will peak at 7.8% in Q4 of this year and Q1 2017 before moving down to 6.2% by the end of 2017.
At the January MPC meeting the SARB hiked rates by 50 bps in response to forecasts which saw inflation moving well above the top of the 3-6% target range. If there are no significant upside surprises to January inflation and the rand maintains its recent stability, we expect the SARB to remain on hold at the March MPC meeting."
Key Quotes:
"The consensus is looking for headline to jump to 6.0% Y/Y from a prior 5.2%, driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects; higher food price inflation as a result of the drought; and the effects of prior rand weakness.
On the other hand, the consensus expects core inflation to move only modestly higher to 5.3% Y/Y from a prior 5.2%. According to the SARB’s latest forecasts, headline inflation will peak at 7.8% in Q4 of this year and Q1 2017 before moving down to 6.2% by the end of 2017.
At the January MPC meeting the SARB hiked rates by 50 bps in response to forecasts which saw inflation moving well above the top of the 3-6% target range. If there are no significant upside surprises to January inflation and the rand maintains its recent stability, we expect the SARB to remain on hold at the March MPC meeting."