15 Feb 2016
NZD/USD bears tempted below 200 dma
Today is a key day for the Kiwi. We have the retail sales data. While this has not always been a market mover, investors are scrutinizing data intensely this year due to the turmoil that rocked markets as 2016 kicked into action.
In 2015, New Zealand retail sales had been growing positively overall, but that was while the economy had been improving and recovering as employment levels rose and inflation was kept in check and consumers were buying local. However, the risk is that consumers that are nervous are allured to the wider ranges and cheaper products in overseas internet retailing. We also have RBNZ inflation expectations later on in the Asian shift for Q1 Y/Y. Finally, focus will turn to the GDT price index tomorrow.
NZD/USD downside bias on stronger greenback
Meanwhile, the dollar is performing better as risk returns to markets. Overnight, Asia rallied and as did commodity prices which supports the kiwi as well to some extent, but the dollar fared the best. NZD/USD can take some time to consolidate in the vicinity of the 200 dma.
NZD/USD levels
NZD/USD penetrated the 200 sma on the hourly sticks, but the 200 dma acts as a key resistance at 0.6680 today. The high has been 0.6676 so far. Support may be found at the 20 sma on the hourly sticks at 0.6652 as the pair consolidates, but trades with a "heavy" bias with a target of 0.6620 on the downside and 0.6609 being the recent low.
On a break of the 200 dma, R2 is at 0.6701 and R3 is at 0.6717. To the downside, S1 is at 0.6558 and S3 at 0.6525.
In 2015, New Zealand retail sales had been growing positively overall, but that was while the economy had been improving and recovering as employment levels rose and inflation was kept in check and consumers were buying local. However, the risk is that consumers that are nervous are allured to the wider ranges and cheaper products in overseas internet retailing. We also have RBNZ inflation expectations later on in the Asian shift for Q1 Y/Y. Finally, focus will turn to the GDT price index tomorrow.
NZD/USD downside bias on stronger greenback
Meanwhile, the dollar is performing better as risk returns to markets. Overnight, Asia rallied and as did commodity prices which supports the kiwi as well to some extent, but the dollar fared the best. NZD/USD can take some time to consolidate in the vicinity of the 200 dma.
NZD/USD levels
NZD/USD penetrated the 200 sma on the hourly sticks, but the 200 dma acts as a key resistance at 0.6680 today. The high has been 0.6676 so far. Support may be found at the 20 sma on the hourly sticks at 0.6652 as the pair consolidates, but trades with a "heavy" bias with a target of 0.6620 on the downside and 0.6609 being the recent low.
On a break of the 200 dma, R2 is at 0.6701 and R3 is at 0.6717. To the downside, S1 is at 0.6558 and S3 at 0.6525.