11 Feb 2016
HEads up for a much lowerr fix on Monday - BTMU
Analysts at The Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained the possibility of a much lower fix when China return on Monday.
Key Quotes:
"Against the backdrop of lower USD/Asian EM this week and with the CFETS RMB Index still below 100 (as of 5th February), PBOC may have to set a much lower USD/CNY fixing upon China's return next Monday to not disappoint markets and to continue USD/RMB stabilization."
"Given the fixing-spot discount of about -200pips in recent sessions, only a fixing near the 6.5 level could justify an USD/CNY spot open near current USD/CNH level. January's trade data out next week is more likely to disappoint than not ( an upbeat release could entice the data veracity dispute again) and should refract market's focus from the Fed back to China's economic woes."
Key Quotes:
"Against the backdrop of lower USD/Asian EM this week and with the CFETS RMB Index still below 100 (as of 5th February), PBOC may have to set a much lower USD/CNY fixing upon China's return next Monday to not disappoint markets and to continue USD/RMB stabilization."
"Given the fixing-spot discount of about -200pips in recent sessions, only a fixing near the 6.5 level could justify an USD/CNY spot open near current USD/CNH level. January's trade data out next week is more likely to disappoint than not ( an upbeat release could entice the data veracity dispute again) and should refract market's focus from the Fed back to China's economic woes."