UK: ‘Brexit’ uncertainty biggest threat to the upturn – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Mikael Olai Milhøj, Analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that although growth in the UK has slowed in recent quarters, the upturn remains on track.

Key Quotes

“We still expect growth slightly above trend in coming years, driven mainly by domestic demand, as the strong GBP and weak global demand weigh on exports.

The lower oil price has lowered the inflation outlook. This is the main reason we recently moved our call for the first BoE hike to Q2 16, probably in May.

‘Brexit’ is the main risk factor for the UK economy. Higher uncertainty until the referendum may hurt the recovery.”