31 Dec 2015
Long MXN and RUB (equally weighted) versus short ZAR and CLP (equally weighted) - Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Delhi) - Research Team at Goldman Sachs, suggests to go long an equally-weighted basket of MXN and RUB versus short an equally weighted basket of ZAR and CLP, with an entry level of 100, total return target of 110 and stops at 95. The expected return, including carry, is around 10%.
Key Quotes
“This EM relative value trade speaks to a number of our key themes in EM in 2016. It positions for (i) currencies where external balances have adjusted in recent years (RUB) versus those where more progress is required (ZAR); (ii) currencies (MXN and, again, RUB) that are exposed to crude oil where we see limited further downside under our central forecasts versus commodities tied to capital expenditure, such as industrial metals, where we see further downside (CLP, ZAR); and (iii) the short side is relatively more exposed to a slowing in China and the risk of a CNY depreciation. We expect a 10% total return including carry (about 1% on a 12-month basis).”
Key Quotes
“This EM relative value trade speaks to a number of our key themes in EM in 2016. It positions for (i) currencies where external balances have adjusted in recent years (RUB) versus those where more progress is required (ZAR); (ii) currencies (MXN and, again, RUB) that are exposed to crude oil where we see limited further downside under our central forecasts versus commodities tied to capital expenditure, such as industrial metals, where we see further downside (CLP, ZAR); and (iii) the short side is relatively more exposed to a slowing in China and the risk of a CNY depreciation. We expect a 10% total return including carry (about 1% on a 12-month basis).”