23 Dec 2015
CAD: Retail sales and GDP in focus after Brazil released inflation report - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that Canada reports October retail sales, which are expected to rise 0.4% m/m vs. -0.5% in September.
Key Quotes
“Canada also reports October GDP, which is expected at -0.1% y/y vs. a flat reading in September. Recent data from Canada have been disappointing, and keeps alive the notion that the BOC’s easing cycle has not yet ended. USD/CAD continues to flirt with the 1.40 area but has yet to make a clean break. To us, it’s just a matter of time.”
“Brazil’s central bank released its quarterly inflation report. Using its so-called reference scenario of steady interest rates and exchange rates, the bank forecasts for inflation in 2015 and 2016 were increased to 10.8% and 6.2%, respectively. The 2017 forecast was introduced at 4.8%. The bank added that recent BRL weakness and inflation inertia pose risks ahead. We believe the tightening cycle will be restarted in Q1, but even that will not be enough to halt BRL underperformance next year. For now, new Finance Minister Barbosa is saying the right things, emphasizing that the government will do what is needed to meet the 0.5% of GDP primary surplus target for 2016.”
Key Quotes
“Canada also reports October GDP, which is expected at -0.1% y/y vs. a flat reading in September. Recent data from Canada have been disappointing, and keeps alive the notion that the BOC’s easing cycle has not yet ended. USD/CAD continues to flirt with the 1.40 area but has yet to make a clean break. To us, it’s just a matter of time.”
“Brazil’s central bank released its quarterly inflation report. Using its so-called reference scenario of steady interest rates and exchange rates, the bank forecasts for inflation in 2015 and 2016 were increased to 10.8% and 6.2%, respectively. The 2017 forecast was introduced at 4.8%. The bank added that recent BRL weakness and inflation inertia pose risks ahead. We believe the tightening cycle will be restarted in Q1, but even that will not be enough to halt BRL underperformance next year. For now, new Finance Minister Barbosa is saying the right things, emphasizing that the government will do what is needed to meet the 0.5% of GDP primary surplus target for 2016.”