17 Dec 2015
JPY: JGB positive as exports fall short, trade balance surpasses consensus – Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that in November, nominal exports fell short of consensus expectations and the balance of trade (trade deficit) was larger than consensus expectations (both JGB-positive).
Key Quotes
“November nominal exports fell by 3.3% y-o-y (down 2.2% in October), below the consensus estimate of a 1.6% decrease. However, real exports rose by 2.9% m-o-m (down 0.3% in October, according to our estimate), increasing for the first time in two months. October-November real exports were 2.6% higher than the monthly average for July-September (up 1.0% q-o-q), remaining in an uptrend. Real exports fell sharply in April-June (down 4.3%), but have been on a recovery trend since then.”
“November nominal imports fell by 10.2% y-o-y (down 13.4% in October), well below the consensus estimate of a 7.3% decline. Real imports declined by 0.9% m-o-m in November, falling for a second month. The sharp rise in September seems to have been a temporary phenomenon. October-November real imports were 0.7% lower than the monthly average for July-September (up 2.8% q-o-q), showing a downturn.”
“The November seasonally adjusted trade deficit was JPY3.3bn (JPY173.0bn deficit in October), narrower than the consensus estimate of JPY206.7bn. The November original series trade deficit was JPY379.7bn (JPY108.3bn surplus in October), beating the consensus estimate of a JPY449.7bn deficit. This is attributable to imports declining more sharply than exports, as mentioned above. The trade deficit widened from April through July, as exports slowed, and then began to narrow.”
Key Quotes
“November nominal exports fell by 3.3% y-o-y (down 2.2% in October), below the consensus estimate of a 1.6% decrease. However, real exports rose by 2.9% m-o-m (down 0.3% in October, according to our estimate), increasing for the first time in two months. October-November real exports were 2.6% higher than the monthly average for July-September (up 1.0% q-o-q), remaining in an uptrend. Real exports fell sharply in April-June (down 4.3%), but have been on a recovery trend since then.”
“November nominal imports fell by 10.2% y-o-y (down 13.4% in October), well below the consensus estimate of a 7.3% decline. Real imports declined by 0.9% m-o-m in November, falling for a second month. The sharp rise in September seems to have been a temporary phenomenon. October-November real imports were 0.7% lower than the monthly average for July-September (up 2.8% q-o-q), showing a downturn.”
“The November seasonally adjusted trade deficit was JPY3.3bn (JPY173.0bn deficit in October), narrower than the consensus estimate of JPY206.7bn. The November original series trade deficit was JPY379.7bn (JPY108.3bn surplus in October), beating the consensus estimate of a JPY449.7bn deficit. This is attributable to imports declining more sharply than exports, as mentioned above. The trade deficit widened from April through July, as exports slowed, and then began to narrow.”