16 Dec 2015
Stevens is happy with progress, Aussie can depreciate further - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ explained that RBA Governor Stevens presented a slightly more positive assessment of the Australian economy in his annual AFR interview.
Key Quotes:
"In our view, domestic data has undeniably improved, but we still expect some headwinds in 2016 as the impetus to growth and employment from the housing market and lower AUD wanes. We expect 50bps of easing in 2016, but clearly the hurdles for getting that outcome are mounting.
In particular, he noted the prospects for growth have improved since the last RBA forecast update in the November SoMP. The main takeaways were that he thinks the AUD could decline further given commodity prices are still falling. He sees an improving trend in the labour market when looking at a wide range of data. In the labour force report in particular, he noted a "pretty solid sequence of growth in employment" even before the November report.
He noted the better trends in the unemployment rate (flat), participation rate (rising), population-to-employment rate (rising), job vacancies (rising) and said "economic conditions have improved a bit”. Stevens said he believes it's a good thing that some steam has come out of housing prices in Melbourne and Sydney. The lack of a pick-up in non-mining sector investment may be due to businesses just holding back until they are more confident that the recent improvement in activity is sustainable."
Key Quotes:
"In our view, domestic data has undeniably improved, but we still expect some headwinds in 2016 as the impetus to growth and employment from the housing market and lower AUD wanes. We expect 50bps of easing in 2016, but clearly the hurdles for getting that outcome are mounting.
In particular, he noted the prospects for growth have improved since the last RBA forecast update in the November SoMP. The main takeaways were that he thinks the AUD could decline further given commodity prices are still falling. He sees an improving trend in the labour market when looking at a wide range of data. In the labour force report in particular, he noted a "pretty solid sequence of growth in employment" even before the November report.
He noted the better trends in the unemployment rate (flat), participation rate (rising), population-to-employment rate (rising), job vacancies (rising) and said "economic conditions have improved a bit”. Stevens said he believes it's a good thing that some steam has come out of housing prices in Melbourne and Sydney. The lack of a pick-up in non-mining sector investment may be due to businesses just holding back until they are more confident that the recent improvement in activity is sustainable."