15 Dec 2015
Fed kicks off today in the most awaited event of the year - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated meeting starts today.
Key Quotes
“A rate hike remains the most likely scenario. The lack of a move now would arguably be more disruptive than a move, and more disruptive than standing pat in September. Given market positioning (still very long dollars) and the holiday mode, the dramatic response to the ECB's disappointment risks being repeated.”
“There have been some teeth-gnashing over the sharp sell-off in junk bonds, the jump in the VIX to its highest level since early October, and the drop in the 10-year break-evens. We expect the Fed to look past these short-run developments. Instead, the Fed is likely to remain focused on the positive momentum in the labor market. Unemployment of 5.0% matches many definitions of full-employment. In the Great Recession, the US lost 8.7 mln jobs. It has grown 13 mln during the recovery and expansion. In September, the three-month annualized wage increase was 2%. In November, it was 2.8%.”
Key Quotes
“A rate hike remains the most likely scenario. The lack of a move now would arguably be more disruptive than a move, and more disruptive than standing pat in September. Given market positioning (still very long dollars) and the holiday mode, the dramatic response to the ECB's disappointment risks being repeated.”
“There have been some teeth-gnashing over the sharp sell-off in junk bonds, the jump in the VIX to its highest level since early October, and the drop in the 10-year break-evens. We expect the Fed to look past these short-run developments. Instead, the Fed is likely to remain focused on the positive momentum in the labor market. Unemployment of 5.0% matches many definitions of full-employment. In the Great Recession, the US lost 8.7 mln jobs. It has grown 13 mln during the recovery and expansion. In September, the three-month annualized wage increase was 2%. In November, it was 2.8%.”