14 Dec 2015
FOMC: event of the decade for EM's - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - The key event of this week, if not decade, is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Key Quotes:
"Along with 99% of analysts, we expect a Fed hike—but as our FOMC preview explains, the overall tone of the communique won’t be as dovish as markets expect, reflecting the FOMC’s greater confidence in the economic outlook. The post-announcement press conference will likely be a bit more balanced as Yellen can elaborate on the “gradual” path for rates.
"Given the fact that a hike is so widely anticipated, our expectation is that market reaction in general, and that of EMs specifically, should be moderate. But if the market is surprised in terms of message and guidance, than we should also expect some corrections in the EMs. Currencies and stocks are most vulnerable.
The 17 Sept FOMC showed us that the most reactive EM currencies were RUB, TRY and MXN. INR, IDR and MYR won’t be trading until next day, and a hawkish message from the Fed has a high chance to see them substantially weaker. EM central banks will also have to take on board the consequences of a Fed rate hike, and two of them, Banxico and BI, have rates meetings on the next day, Thursday."
Key Quotes:
"Along with 99% of analysts, we expect a Fed hike—but as our FOMC preview explains, the overall tone of the communique won’t be as dovish as markets expect, reflecting the FOMC’s greater confidence in the economic outlook. The post-announcement press conference will likely be a bit more balanced as Yellen can elaborate on the “gradual” path for rates.
"Given the fact that a hike is so widely anticipated, our expectation is that market reaction in general, and that of EMs specifically, should be moderate. But if the market is surprised in terms of message and guidance, than we should also expect some corrections in the EMs. Currencies and stocks are most vulnerable.
The 17 Sept FOMC showed us that the most reactive EM currencies were RUB, TRY and MXN. INR, IDR and MYR won’t be trading until next day, and a hawkish message from the Fed has a high chance to see them substantially weaker. EM central banks will also have to take on board the consequences of a Fed rate hike, and two of them, Banxico and BI, have rates meetings on the next day, Thursday."