4 Dec 2015
US Non-farm payrolls preview: What to expect of EUR/USD
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair is trading weak ahead of the US non-farm payrolls release after having witnessed its largest single day gain since 2009 on Thursday. The ECB fell short of the market expectations and led to a sharp unwinding of the EUR shorts and triggered a wave of USD selling across the board.
NFP risks being non-event unless horribly weak/surprisingly weak
The NFP report due today risks being a non-event for the markets in a sense that investors believe the December liftoff is a done deal now and hence it would take horribly weak or a surprisingly strong number to trigger a major adjustment in the Fed rate hike bets.
At the moment, the 2-year yield clocked a fresh 5-1/2 year high of 0.994% yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures indicate a 79% probability of a rate hike at the Dec 16 Fed meeting. Markets expect the NFP to show the economy added 200K jobs in November, which is far less than October’s 271K. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 5%.
If the number prints at around estimates, the markets may not witness much action. Consequently, the markets may continue to hold US dollars ahead of the Dec meeting or may unload USD longs on “buy the rumor, Sell the fact” trade.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair currently trades around 1.09. The immediate support is located at 1.0890 (38.2% of 1.1495-1.0517) and 1.0855 (daily low), under which the pair could extend the losses to 1.0808 (July 20 low). A break lower would expose 0.0748 (23.6% of 1.1495-1.0517). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1.0950 (trend line resistance drawn from Marc 16 low-Apr 13 low) and 1.0976 (50-DMA). A break higher would bring 100-DMA at 1.1060 into play.
NFP risks being non-event unless horribly weak/surprisingly weak
The NFP report due today risks being a non-event for the markets in a sense that investors believe the December liftoff is a done deal now and hence it would take horribly weak or a surprisingly strong number to trigger a major adjustment in the Fed rate hike bets.
At the moment, the 2-year yield clocked a fresh 5-1/2 year high of 0.994% yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fed funds futures indicate a 79% probability of a rate hike at the Dec 16 Fed meeting. Markets expect the NFP to show the economy added 200K jobs in November, which is far less than October’s 271K. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 5%.
If the number prints at around estimates, the markets may not witness much action. Consequently, the markets may continue to hold US dollars ahead of the Dec meeting or may unload USD longs on “buy the rumor, Sell the fact” trade.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair currently trades around 1.09. The immediate support is located at 1.0890 (38.2% of 1.1495-1.0517) and 1.0855 (daily low), under which the pair could extend the losses to 1.0808 (July 20 low). A break lower would expose 0.0748 (23.6% of 1.1495-1.0517). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1.0950 (trend line resistance drawn from Marc 16 low-Apr 13 low) and 1.0976 (50-DMA). A break higher would bring 100-DMA at 1.1060 into play.