3 Dec 2015
Turkish CPI rockets while Brazil sees impeachment procedure against President – TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that ahead of the ECB decision scheduled for later today, there are specific EM events that will continue to attract market attention.
Key Quotes
“In Brazil, Lower House Speaker Cunha decided to open an impeachment procedure against President Dilma. We think the knee-jerk market reaction will be negative, but don’t see at this stage much scope for an extended selloff as the process will be lengthy, complex and eventually unlikely to be successful. Clearly someone may be speculating that a Dilma ousting is positive for the country, but this hardly will be achieved through an impeachment.”
“In Turkey, the November CPI data came out worse than expected, with the headline rate jumping to 8.1% Y/Y (cons: 7.84%) from a prior 7.6%. Core inflation also increased to 9.2% (cons: 9.0%) from a prior 8.9%. The main drivers of the jump in headline inflation were food prices (9.5% Y/Y from 8.7%) and transport (5.1% Y/Y from 4.0%).”
“However, the high level of core inflation shows that the problem runs much deeper than just food prices. We think that the CBRT will be forced to hike rates early next year, although they will drag their feet doing this. But most importantly, Turkey stands at the core of a troubled and very unstable region, with terror threats and other geopolitical tension rising, which continues to suggest that the market remains too complacent about very material risks.”
Key Quotes
“In Brazil, Lower House Speaker Cunha decided to open an impeachment procedure against President Dilma. We think the knee-jerk market reaction will be negative, but don’t see at this stage much scope for an extended selloff as the process will be lengthy, complex and eventually unlikely to be successful. Clearly someone may be speculating that a Dilma ousting is positive for the country, but this hardly will be achieved through an impeachment.”
“In Turkey, the November CPI data came out worse than expected, with the headline rate jumping to 8.1% Y/Y (cons: 7.84%) from a prior 7.6%. Core inflation also increased to 9.2% (cons: 9.0%) from a prior 8.9%. The main drivers of the jump in headline inflation were food prices (9.5% Y/Y from 8.7%) and transport (5.1% Y/Y from 4.0%).”
“However, the high level of core inflation shows that the problem runs much deeper than just food prices. We think that the CBRT will be forced to hike rates early next year, although they will drag their feet doing this. But most importantly, Turkey stands at the core of a troubled and very unstable region, with terror threats and other geopolitical tension rising, which continues to suggest that the market remains too complacent about very material risks.”