19 Nov 2015
SARB hikes rates: Expect a slow tightening cycle – TDS
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Today the central bank of South Africa rose the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. According to analysts from TD Securities the tightening cycle should be slow with the next rate hike to take place probably in March.
Key Quotes:
“We think today’s hike should be seen as an attempt by the SARB to increase its credibility and put downwards pressure on inflationary expectations. The SARB’s inflation forecast has not changed significantly from the September meeting. Indeed in the near-term it sees a somewhat lower path for headline inflation.”
“However, the SARB is concerned about what it sees as an increase in the upside risks to these forecasts and is acting pre-emptively. The fact that a possible Fed hike is in the offing, while not irrelevant, is secondary.”
“Although the SARB remains in a tightening cycle, we expect the pace of tightening to be slow. We now expect 50 bps of hikes next year with the first hike probably coming at the March meeting.”
Key Quotes:
“We think today’s hike should be seen as an attempt by the SARB to increase its credibility and put downwards pressure on inflationary expectations. The SARB’s inflation forecast has not changed significantly from the September meeting. Indeed in the near-term it sees a somewhat lower path for headline inflation.”
“However, the SARB is concerned about what it sees as an increase in the upside risks to these forecasts and is acting pre-emptively. The fact that a possible Fed hike is in the offing, while not irrelevant, is secondary.”
“Although the SARB remains in a tightening cycle, we expect the pace of tightening to be slow. We now expect 50 bps of hikes next year with the first hike probably coming at the March meeting.”