17 Nov 2015
UK CPI preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair is trading weak in early Europe with investors awaiting the UK October CPI report, which will be followed by the US CPI release in the US session.
Focus on core inflation
The traders would be interested to see if the core inflation is holding up well amid falling headline figure due to energy prices. The Bank of England, in its latest quarterly inflation report, revised inflation forecasts lower and did cite the possibility of downside risks in the short-term.
Still, the month-on-month figure is expected to show the CPI rebounded 0.1%, from September’s -0.1%. The core is seen remaining steady at 1% annualised rate. The annualised CPI is also expected to show another drop of 0.1%.
The negative surprise in the headline figure will not be a surprise, given the weakness in oil prices. After the BOJ’s decision to keep policy steady last month, markets now believe most central banks are done fighting the oil driven low inflation figure. Hence, the main focus is likely to be on the core figure.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
At 1.5180, the immediate resistance and support is seen at 1.5206 (38.2% of 1.5491-1.5027) and 1.5138 (23.6% of 1.5491-1.5027). An upbeat core inflation figure along with a positive headline figure could push the pair above 1.5206 and towards a strong resistance at 1.5248 (50% of Apr-Jun rally). A break above the same would expose 1.53. On the other side, a drop in core inflation could trigger a break below 1.5138 followed by a sell-off to 1.5107 (Oct 1 low). A break below the same would expose the November low of 1.5027.
Focus on core inflation
The traders would be interested to see if the core inflation is holding up well amid falling headline figure due to energy prices. The Bank of England, in its latest quarterly inflation report, revised inflation forecasts lower and did cite the possibility of downside risks in the short-term.
Still, the month-on-month figure is expected to show the CPI rebounded 0.1%, from September’s -0.1%. The core is seen remaining steady at 1% annualised rate. The annualised CPI is also expected to show another drop of 0.1%.
The negative surprise in the headline figure will not be a surprise, given the weakness in oil prices. After the BOJ’s decision to keep policy steady last month, markets now believe most central banks are done fighting the oil driven low inflation figure. Hence, the main focus is likely to be on the core figure.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
At 1.5180, the immediate resistance and support is seen at 1.5206 (38.2% of 1.5491-1.5027) and 1.5138 (23.6% of 1.5491-1.5027). An upbeat core inflation figure along with a positive headline figure could push the pair above 1.5206 and towards a strong resistance at 1.5248 (50% of Apr-Jun rally). A break above the same would expose 1.53. On the other side, a drop in core inflation could trigger a break below 1.5138 followed by a sell-off to 1.5107 (Oct 1 low). A break below the same would expose the November low of 1.5027.