15 Oct 2013
Flash: Busy week for the pound - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities commented on a busy week ahead for the pound.
Key Quotes:
"CPI was a little stronger than expected at 2.7% Y/Y in Sept (mkt 2.6%), unchanged from August. Airlines were a major source of strength, but more generally we saw stronger core pressures after three months of weaker trends, particularly on the services side".
"However, we don’t expect to see inflation as a particularly large market mover unless it starts trekking significantly higher again, threatening the BoE’s inflation knock-outs".
"Instead the focus will be on the unemployment rate, where analysts are split for tomorrow’s reading between looking for unchanged at 7.7% or another notch lower at 7.6%. If we hit 7.6%, then the u-rate would have moved one quarter of the way toward the BoE’s 7.0% threshold from the Aug Inflation Report to the Nov IR, while the BoE didn’t forecast reaching the 7.0% level until mid-2016".
Key Quotes:
"CPI was a little stronger than expected at 2.7% Y/Y in Sept (mkt 2.6%), unchanged from August. Airlines were a major source of strength, but more generally we saw stronger core pressures after three months of weaker trends, particularly on the services side".
"However, we don’t expect to see inflation as a particularly large market mover unless it starts trekking significantly higher again, threatening the BoE’s inflation knock-outs".
"Instead the focus will be on the unemployment rate, where analysts are split for tomorrow’s reading between looking for unchanged at 7.7% or another notch lower at 7.6%. If we hit 7.6%, then the u-rate would have moved one quarter of the way toward the BoE’s 7.0% threshold from the Aug Inflation Report to the Nov IR, while the BoE didn’t forecast reaching the 7.0% level until mid-2016".