14 Oct 2013
AUD/USD gains again uptrend momentum after solid China CPI release
FXstreet.com (Athens) – The AUD/USD is moving again slightly upwards - roughly close to the Friday closure, after having being hit immensely at the kick-off of the Asian trading session amidst the US budget fiscal impasse and the much worse than expected Chinese export data.
AUD/USD slightly upwards on solid Chinese CPI amidst US impasse jitters, softer Chinese trade balance.
The AUD/USD started much lower on early trading in the kick off of the Asian trading session, after poor Chinese data were released during the weekend, alongside with the lack of the resolution on the US fiscal issues. Elaborating on, during the weekend the Chinese trade surplus released to have been narrowed by far in September ($15.2 billion - falling well short of the forecasted $27 billion and very lower to the August one as of $28.52 billion). In addition to the very soft Chinese trade balance data – the greatest trading partner of the “Aussie” - US lawmakers failed again to find a resolution to the fiscal impasse during the weekend. However, from the fundamental aspect of view things seem to be better than initially forecasted. While the trade balance of the second largest country of the world released over the weekend came below expectations, Chinese imports held up very well with the iron ore imports at a record high, indicating that Chinese demand is heating up again. Taking for granted that Australia's largest export by far to China regarding the iron ore, as well as that the Chinese CPI released at a very solid area (+3.1% versus +2.8% expected and +2.6% on August), we understand the two key reasons that boosted again the “Aussie”. Last but not least, the uptrend moving was also forced by the fact that amidst a very light in trading volumes session (Japan, Indonesia, Hong Kong on holidays), the early sellers on the “Aussie” were forced to close their “short” positions, therefore stop losses being hit, dragging the cross upwards.
Technical Aspects on the AUD/USD
Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggests that the “AUD/USD is starting to stall ahead of its initial resistance at .9510/25. The market has started to erode its short term uptrend and this is likely to trigger a retest of its 38.2% retracement support at .9283. Below .9283, support lies at the .9233 August high and the .9196 55 day ma. Key short term resistance lies at .9510/25, while above .9283 we are unable to rule out scope for recovery. Above the .9525 recent high will target the .9580 May 2012 low and then the .9665 June high.”
AUD/USD slightly upwards on solid Chinese CPI amidst US impasse jitters, softer Chinese trade balance.
The AUD/USD started much lower on early trading in the kick off of the Asian trading session, after poor Chinese data were released during the weekend, alongside with the lack of the resolution on the US fiscal issues. Elaborating on, during the weekend the Chinese trade surplus released to have been narrowed by far in September ($15.2 billion - falling well short of the forecasted $27 billion and very lower to the August one as of $28.52 billion). In addition to the very soft Chinese trade balance data – the greatest trading partner of the “Aussie” - US lawmakers failed again to find a resolution to the fiscal impasse during the weekend. However, from the fundamental aspect of view things seem to be better than initially forecasted. While the trade balance of the second largest country of the world released over the weekend came below expectations, Chinese imports held up very well with the iron ore imports at a record high, indicating that Chinese demand is heating up again. Taking for granted that Australia's largest export by far to China regarding the iron ore, as well as that the Chinese CPI released at a very solid area (+3.1% versus +2.8% expected and +2.6% on August), we understand the two key reasons that boosted again the “Aussie”. Last but not least, the uptrend moving was also forced by the fact that amidst a very light in trading volumes session (Japan, Indonesia, Hong Kong on holidays), the early sellers on the “Aussie” were forced to close their “short” positions, therefore stop losses being hit, dragging the cross upwards.
Technical Aspects on the AUD/USD
Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggests that the “AUD/USD is starting to stall ahead of its initial resistance at .9510/25. The market has started to erode its short term uptrend and this is likely to trigger a retest of its 38.2% retracement support at .9283. Below .9283, support lies at the .9233 August high and the .9196 55 day ma. Key short term resistance lies at .9510/25, while above .9283 we are unable to rule out scope for recovery. Above the .9525 recent high will target the .9580 May 2012 low and then the .9665 June high.”