29 Oct 2015
Dovish foreign central banks increase probability of Fed liftoff – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Goldman Sachs research notes, other things being equal, the dovish actions of the foreign central banks raises the probability of the Fed rate hike.
Key Quotes
“Foreign central banks—including the ECB and BoJ—are expected to provide additional monetary easing. The implication for Fed policy is, however, unclear as foreign easing boosts global growth but also appreciates the dollar.”
“We therefore use statistical techniques to estimate the net effect of foreign policy “surprises” on historical Fed policy decisions. Our results suggest that dovish foreign central bank surprises typically raise the likelihood of funds rate hikes, all else equal. But we do not find a systematic effect on the probability of rate cuts.”
Key Quotes
“Foreign central banks—including the ECB and BoJ—are expected to provide additional monetary easing. The implication for Fed policy is, however, unclear as foreign easing boosts global growth but also appreciates the dollar.”
“We therefore use statistical techniques to estimate the net effect of foreign policy “surprises” on historical Fed policy decisions. Our results suggest that dovish foreign central bank surprises typically raise the likelihood of funds rate hikes, all else equal. But we do not find a systematic effect on the probability of rate cuts.”