7 Sep 2015
Return of the dragon and USD/JPY is offered to test 118 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is open in early Asia better offered following on from last week's negative close on Wall Street. The pair was drifting lower below the 50/200 hourly SMA's meeting at 120.18 and closing the week at 119.04.
USD/JPY posted a low of 118.58 on the Nonfarm Payrolls release, missing expectations. However, looking behind the headline number, the detail of the report was still encouraging, and the Fed will likely look past the low 173k increase, and perhaps focus on the favorable detail instead that include a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, which is into the band the Fed regards as full employment. The positive revision to the July report of +44k that also had a reduction of the unemployment rate with a build in average earnings is also encouraging and leaves September FOMC a close call, supporting a bearish view for stocks and USD/JPY.
Return of the dragon
We are less busy on the US calendar this week, but China returns after a 4-session break which may also be supportive of the Yen, despite the PBoC's Governor Zhou saying that he expects to see a stabilization in China's stock market.
China will report CPI as well. Analysts at TD Securities said that this is likely to surprise a bit on the upside on strength in pork prices, rising by 2.0% y/y in August. "Finally, we get the PBOC reserves from August, with eyes focused keenly on this report to gauge what was spent to keep market volatility at a minimum."
USD/JPY downside extended
Technically, Valeria Bednarik chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "In the daily chart, the pair is well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower near oversold levels, pointing for a continued decline for this Monday." We are now testing the 118 handle out in an increasingly bearish outlook and the next levels to the downside are 118.33/25, (March low) and en-route to the 116.15/115.85 2015 low and the recent low.
USD/JPY posted a low of 118.58 on the Nonfarm Payrolls release, missing expectations. However, looking behind the headline number, the detail of the report was still encouraging, and the Fed will likely look past the low 173k increase, and perhaps focus on the favorable detail instead that include a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, which is into the band the Fed regards as full employment. The positive revision to the July report of +44k that also had a reduction of the unemployment rate with a build in average earnings is also encouraging and leaves September FOMC a close call, supporting a bearish view for stocks and USD/JPY.
Return of the dragon
We are less busy on the US calendar this week, but China returns after a 4-session break which may also be supportive of the Yen, despite the PBoC's Governor Zhou saying that he expects to see a stabilization in China's stock market.
China will report CPI as well. Analysts at TD Securities said that this is likely to surprise a bit on the upside on strength in pork prices, rising by 2.0% y/y in August. "Finally, we get the PBOC reserves from August, with eyes focused keenly on this report to gauge what was spent to keep market volatility at a minimum."
USD/JPY downside extended
Technically, Valeria Bednarik chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "In the daily chart, the pair is well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower near oversold levels, pointing for a continued decline for this Monday." We are now testing the 118 handle out in an increasingly bearish outlook and the next levels to the downside are 118.33/25, (March low) and en-route to the 116.15/115.85 2015 low and the recent low.