4 Sep 2013
USD/JPY rally hits a pit stop at 99.81 – should make it to 100.20 before really stalling out
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Yen getting hit as “risk on” remained in place coupled with the greenback’s tailwind from bullish US data had the USD/JPY on an upside tear until technical resistance at 99.81 and Obama / Syria chatter forced a short-term reversal.
USD/JPY has plenty more data plus geo-politics to digest this week
USDJPY traders just had enough gains early Tuesday when US politicians started sounding more hawkish in their stance on Syria – forcing money that was flowing out of safety and into risk to reverse course starting at around 16:00 GMT and lasting for a couple of hours. That reversal has itself been turned on its head since 18:00 GMT and the USD/JPY is now back above the midpoint of Tuesday’s session. Obviously, the Syrian-related news is very fluid and is having a big impact on the “safety trade”.
For the rest of this week, however, traders will also be eyeing a heavy flow of important data points and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and policy statement. Here’s the schedule:
* Wednesday: US Trade Balance; US Fed Beige Book; Fed’s Dudley speaking; Foreign Investment in Japanese Securities data;
* Thursday: Bank of Japan rate decision; Fed’s Kocherlakota speaking; US ADP Employment Change; US Weekly Jobless Claims; US Non-Farm Productivity & Labor Costs; US Factory Orders; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
* Friday: Japan’s Monthly Economic Survey, Coincident Index and the Leading Index; US Monthly Employment Report
Technical outlook for USD/JPY
Technicians are pointing to key “correction resistance” at 100.12 to 100.35 as the next upside target for USD/JPY. They do point out, however, that Yen futures have already broken down below intermediate-term support – thereby increasing the odds of USD/JPY breaking out. Support comes in at 99 and 98.50 for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY has plenty more data plus geo-politics to digest this week
USDJPY traders just had enough gains early Tuesday when US politicians started sounding more hawkish in their stance on Syria – forcing money that was flowing out of safety and into risk to reverse course starting at around 16:00 GMT and lasting for a couple of hours. That reversal has itself been turned on its head since 18:00 GMT and the USD/JPY is now back above the midpoint of Tuesday’s session. Obviously, the Syrian-related news is very fluid and is having a big impact on the “safety trade”.
For the rest of this week, however, traders will also be eyeing a heavy flow of important data points and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and policy statement. Here’s the schedule:
* Wednesday: US Trade Balance; US Fed Beige Book; Fed’s Dudley speaking; Foreign Investment in Japanese Securities data;
* Thursday: Bank of Japan rate decision; Fed’s Kocherlakota speaking; US ADP Employment Change; US Weekly Jobless Claims; US Non-Farm Productivity & Labor Costs; US Factory Orders; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
* Friday: Japan’s Monthly Economic Survey, Coincident Index and the Leading Index; US Monthly Employment Report
Technical outlook for USD/JPY
Technicians are pointing to key “correction resistance” at 100.12 to 100.35 as the next upside target for USD/JPY. They do point out, however, that Yen futures have already broken down below intermediate-term support – thereby increasing the odds of USD/JPY breaking out. Support comes in at 99 and 98.50 for USD/JPY.