2 Jul 2015
US nonfarm payroll scenarios and USD outlook – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, shares their forecast for the US nonfarm payrolls, and further explains the possible reaction in USD from different NFP outcomes.
Key Quotes
“SG's economists forecast a ‘steady as she goes' 210K payrolls gain, with unemployment down to 5.4% from 5.5% and wage growth edging down to 2.2% on a calendar quirk. That's a recipe for a quiet afternoon in FX but perhaps for a good one in equities.”
Watch the NonFarm Payrolls Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik and Dale Pinkert
“A “strong-ish” report (unemployment down to 5.4% and NFP above +250k) would not be enough to trigger risk aversion but would be mildly dollar supportive. USD/JPY should rally and with the euro increasingly behaving like a ‘risk-off' currency, I think anything above 250K is enough for EUR/USD to get below 1.10.”
“A significant upside surprise (NFP +300K, with average hourly earnings growth picking up from 2.3% y/y) would shift the mood to risk aversion.”
“At the other extreme a gain below 200K, wage growth flat or falling and unemployment flat, would support the large minority who think the Fed will remain on hold into 2016, and re-focus markets on Greece.”
Key Quotes
“SG's economists forecast a ‘steady as she goes' 210K payrolls gain, with unemployment down to 5.4% from 5.5% and wage growth edging down to 2.2% on a calendar quirk. That's a recipe for a quiet afternoon in FX but perhaps for a good one in equities.”
Watch the NonFarm Payrolls Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik and Dale Pinkert
“A “strong-ish” report (unemployment down to 5.4% and NFP above +250k) would not be enough to trigger risk aversion but would be mildly dollar supportive. USD/JPY should rally and with the euro increasingly behaving like a ‘risk-off' currency, I think anything above 250K is enough for EUR/USD to get below 1.10.”
“A significant upside surprise (NFP +300K, with average hourly earnings growth picking up from 2.3% y/y) would shift the mood to risk aversion.”
“At the other extreme a gain below 200K, wage growth flat or falling and unemployment flat, would support the large minority who think the Fed will remain on hold into 2016, and re-focus markets on Greece.”