13 Jun 2015
FX: CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 9th for FX.
Key Quotes:
"IMM data for the week through June 9th show investors boosting aggregate long USD exposure versus the major currencies for a third consecutive week after a steady reduction in the broader USD bull bet evident here since late March. The overall implied positioning of CTA and leveraged players climbed to USD 37.2bn through June 9th, the highest since late April, from USD 36.4bn in the previous week."
"Just for a change, the bigger bull bet was not related to positioning in the EUR. The JPY drove the lion’s share of the swing in positioning. Investors jumped on the weak JPY bandwagon as spot USDJPY moved above 125; net short JPY positions rose to –116k contracts this week, from –86k in the June 2nd reporting period. Following the spate of verbal intervention from the BoJ, however, we suspect that freshly-minted shorts especially are being squeezed by the rebound in the JPY and may be squeezed further near-term. Positioning may be less robust next week."
"By contrast, net short EUR positioning was reduced to –138k contracts this week, down from –165k in the prior week’s report. Net GBP shorts were little changed at –28k this week, ditto for net CHF longs which rose 2k contracts to +10k."
"Investors have been whipped around by the swings in the CAD over the past few weeks—establishing the first, modest net long in the CAD since last September in mid-May, only to see the CAD slip back, and boosting net CAD shorts in the latest reporting week, only to see the CAD rally. Net CAD shorts rose from –1k in the June 2nd reporting week to –14k in the latest but this is not the sort of price action that will boost investor conviction about positioning; quite the reverse, in fact."
"Net AUD shorts were little changed at –14k in the June 9th week and while net NZD shorts rose only modestly to –11.7k contracts, speculative accounts have steadily built the largest bet against the Kiwi in a number of years over the past month. Given this week’s RBNZ rate cut and a clear official desire for the NZD to weaken, IMM players are getting on board the short trade aggressively. Net short MXN positions nudged up 6k to –51k this week."
Key Quotes:
"IMM data for the week through June 9th show investors boosting aggregate long USD exposure versus the major currencies for a third consecutive week after a steady reduction in the broader USD bull bet evident here since late March. The overall implied positioning of CTA and leveraged players climbed to USD 37.2bn through June 9th, the highest since late April, from USD 36.4bn in the previous week."
"Just for a change, the bigger bull bet was not related to positioning in the EUR. The JPY drove the lion’s share of the swing in positioning. Investors jumped on the weak JPY bandwagon as spot USDJPY moved above 125; net short JPY positions rose to –116k contracts this week, from –86k in the June 2nd reporting period. Following the spate of verbal intervention from the BoJ, however, we suspect that freshly-minted shorts especially are being squeezed by the rebound in the JPY and may be squeezed further near-term. Positioning may be less robust next week."
"By contrast, net short EUR positioning was reduced to –138k contracts this week, down from –165k in the prior week’s report. Net GBP shorts were little changed at –28k this week, ditto for net CHF longs which rose 2k contracts to +10k."
"Investors have been whipped around by the swings in the CAD over the past few weeks—establishing the first, modest net long in the CAD since last September in mid-May, only to see the CAD slip back, and boosting net CAD shorts in the latest reporting week, only to see the CAD rally. Net CAD shorts rose from –1k in the June 2nd reporting week to –14k in the latest but this is not the sort of price action that will boost investor conviction about positioning; quite the reverse, in fact."
"Net AUD shorts were little changed at –14k in the June 9th week and while net NZD shorts rose only modestly to –11.7k contracts, speculative accounts have steadily built the largest bet against the Kiwi in a number of years over the past month. Given this week’s RBNZ rate cut and a clear official desire for the NZD to weaken, IMM players are getting on board the short trade aggressively. Net short MXN positions nudged up 6k to –51k this week."