11 Jun 2015
US retail sales expected to underpin USD, fade EUR/USD gains below 1.1340/50 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities predict the US retail sales to see an above consensus rebound and to pour strength in the USD, and further suggest selling EUR/USD as long as the pair remains below 1.1340/50.
Key Quotes
“The USD has been trading defensively in the past few days as the JPY firmed on supportive comments from local officials while the EUR picked up on more supportive spreads and hopes for progress on Greece.”
“The USD has bounced a little today and, on the face of it, today’s retail sales data—which are expected to be positive—should help underpin that recovery. The street is looking for a 1.2% rise in sales, with the bulk of the forecast universe falling into the +0.9/1.5% range. The bar thus looks to be set quite high going into the data release for an outcome that can provide the USD with clear support.”
“Our call implies a solid outcome that will help underpin the USD but, given elevated expectations, the risk of some disappointment at least seems quite high. Barring an outright disaster though, we still think EURUSD will struggle to extend much above 1.13 if the data are strong but still manage to disappoint expectations. Look to fade short-term EURUSD gains while spot remains below 1.1340/50.”
Key Quotes
“The USD has been trading defensively in the past few days as the JPY firmed on supportive comments from local officials while the EUR picked up on more supportive spreads and hopes for progress on Greece.”
“The USD has bounced a little today and, on the face of it, today’s retail sales data—which are expected to be positive—should help underpin that recovery. The street is looking for a 1.2% rise in sales, with the bulk of the forecast universe falling into the +0.9/1.5% range. The bar thus looks to be set quite high going into the data release for an outcome that can provide the USD with clear support.”
“Our call implies a solid outcome that will help underpin the USD but, given elevated expectations, the risk of some disappointment at least seems quite high. Barring an outright disaster though, we still think EURUSD will struggle to extend much above 1.13 if the data are strong but still manage to disappoint expectations. Look to fade short-term EURUSD gains while spot remains below 1.1340/50.”