5 Jun 2015
US NFP Forecast at 210K – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities expect a slight softer and below consensus reading for US nonfarm payrolls at 210K.
Key Quotes
“We are looking for a slightly softer read on US payrolls versus the market but still objectively strong at +210k (market: +225k). With claims sitting at cyclical lows, the ISM employment subcomponents well supported, decent ADP private payrolls and a constructive report from the NFIB employment, we feel reasonably confident that we will see a solid US payrolls report today and that will eventually prove to be USD supportive after the post-number volatility settles.”
“While payrolls is still highly revered, we see it holding less implications for the Fed debate to hike this year. To us, the ISM surveys are particularly important—while the services survey slipped it remains well in expansionary territory at 55.7 and manufacturing survey improved. So, we still think there is enough here for the Fed to feel reasonably confident about the growth outlook.”
“Yesterday’s IMF report on the US economy that suggested the Fed should wait until mid-2016 to begin normalizing rates is unlikely to receive much regard from the Fed.”
Key Quotes
“We are looking for a slightly softer read on US payrolls versus the market but still objectively strong at +210k (market: +225k). With claims sitting at cyclical lows, the ISM employment subcomponents well supported, decent ADP private payrolls and a constructive report from the NFIB employment, we feel reasonably confident that we will see a solid US payrolls report today and that will eventually prove to be USD supportive after the post-number volatility settles.”
“While payrolls is still highly revered, we see it holding less implications for the Fed debate to hike this year. To us, the ISM surveys are particularly important—while the services survey slipped it remains well in expansionary territory at 55.7 and manufacturing survey improved. So, we still think there is enough here for the Fed to feel reasonably confident about the growth outlook.”
“Yesterday’s IMF report on the US economy that suggested the Fed should wait until mid-2016 to begin normalizing rates is unlikely to receive much regard from the Fed.”