26 May 2015
NZD/USD sees 0.71 over 3 months – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, targets a NZD/USD sustained break below 0.7300 during the week ahead, with a run to 0.7100 during the next few months.
Key Quotes
“Week ahead: The NZD/USD downtrend since the beginning of May remains intact and we target a sustained break below 0.7300 during the week ahead, with a run to 0.7100 during the next few months.”
“Watch out, though, for the RBNZ MPS on 11 June, which is unlikely to result in an OCR cut, disappointing the market and pushing the NZD briefly higher.”
“This week’s NZ calendar is not critical for economic data but the monthly business confidence survey (ANZ, Fri) will be worth watching for its inflation expectations component. Last week’s RBNZ survey inexplicably showed expectations rose against a backdrop of falling inflation. Watch also for Fonterra’s opening milk payout forecast (probably Thu).”
“3 months ahead: Lower to 0.71. In July we will get the next reading on CPI inflation which we forecast to be 0.3% yoy, and should encouraging market doves.”
“Technicians will point to the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, recently complete, which says a break below the neckline (at 0.7272 currently) implies a further 3 cent fall.”
Key Quotes
“Week ahead: The NZD/USD downtrend since the beginning of May remains intact and we target a sustained break below 0.7300 during the week ahead, with a run to 0.7100 during the next few months.”
“Watch out, though, for the RBNZ MPS on 11 June, which is unlikely to result in an OCR cut, disappointing the market and pushing the NZD briefly higher.”
“This week’s NZ calendar is not critical for economic data but the monthly business confidence survey (ANZ, Fri) will be worth watching for its inflation expectations component. Last week’s RBNZ survey inexplicably showed expectations rose against a backdrop of falling inflation. Watch also for Fonterra’s opening milk payout forecast (probably Thu).”
“3 months ahead: Lower to 0.71. In July we will get the next reading on CPI inflation which we forecast to be 0.3% yoy, and should encouraging market doves.”
“Technicians will point to the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, recently complete, which says a break below the neckline (at 0.7272 currently) implies a further 3 cent fall.”