12 May 2015
UK industrial output hints at possible upward revision to 1Q GDP – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, reviews the UK industrial production data and further views that the above expectation print at 0.5%mom, suggests a modest upward revision could be seen in the Q1 GDP figure.
Key Quotes
“UK industrial production has come in well ahead of expectations, rising 0.5%MoM versus the flat consensus expectations. This is the biggest increase in six months and is led by a 4.9% increase in oil and gas output with mining and quarrying in total up 2.6%MoM.”
“Manufacturing rose 0.4% while utilities output fell marginally.”
“Given that the 1Q15 GDP report had pencilled in a provisional production contraction of 0.1% on the quarter, we could see a modest upward revision to the 0.3%QoQ GDP figure – the ONS now state that total production is estimated to have increased 0.1%QoQ. However, given the sector accounts for less than 15% of UK output it will very much depend on what happens to subsequent services and construction numbers.”
“Nonetheless today’s report is a positive outcome and with business surveys offering encouragement and political uncertainty having diminished the prospects for industry look reasonably good, albeit with risks from sterling’s recent strong run.”
Key Quotes
“UK industrial production has come in well ahead of expectations, rising 0.5%MoM versus the flat consensus expectations. This is the biggest increase in six months and is led by a 4.9% increase in oil and gas output with mining and quarrying in total up 2.6%MoM.”
“Manufacturing rose 0.4% while utilities output fell marginally.”
“Given that the 1Q15 GDP report had pencilled in a provisional production contraction of 0.1% on the quarter, we could see a modest upward revision to the 0.3%QoQ GDP figure – the ONS now state that total production is estimated to have increased 0.1%QoQ. However, given the sector accounts for less than 15% of UK output it will very much depend on what happens to subsequent services and construction numbers.”
“Nonetheless today’s report is a positive outcome and with business surveys offering encouragement and political uncertainty having diminished the prospects for industry look reasonably good, albeit with risks from sterling’s recent strong run.”