25 Mar 2015
USD/CAD offered below 1.2550/60 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, view that USD/CAD risks a move lower towards 1.20 in Q2, and remains offered in the near-term whilst below 1.2550/60.
Key Quotes
“USDCAD retains a soft undertone but yesterday’s bounce from support in the low 1.24 area—the base of the consolidation range that has formed since late January—may delay a test of key support at 1.2360 for a while.”
“We think USDCAD retains a better offered tone near-term below 1.2550/60 at least and, moving into Q2, risks are geared towards dip below 1.20 potentially for funds, considering seasonal risks and patterns.”
“Focus today in the energy markets will be on the DoE inventory data at 10.30ET; markets are expecting another large crude inventory build which should be negative for crude prices. Market reaction to recent inventory data has tended to be negative, our commodity strategy colleagues point out, but price action in crude since last week has looked a little more constructive—even though there has been no change in adverse supply/demand dynamics.”
“Renewed weakness below $46/bbl would be a technical negative from a short-term point of view and drag on the CAD. Better data and/or a squeeze above $48 on the other hand would be constructive for crude’s prospects in the short-term at least and pull the CAD a little higher.”
“On the charts, short-term patterns highlight support at 1.2450 and resistance at 1.2550 rather nearly for the session ahead.”
Key Quotes
“USDCAD retains a soft undertone but yesterday’s bounce from support in the low 1.24 area—the base of the consolidation range that has formed since late January—may delay a test of key support at 1.2360 for a while.”
“We think USDCAD retains a better offered tone near-term below 1.2550/60 at least and, moving into Q2, risks are geared towards dip below 1.20 potentially for funds, considering seasonal risks and patterns.”
“Focus today in the energy markets will be on the DoE inventory data at 10.30ET; markets are expecting another large crude inventory build which should be negative for crude prices. Market reaction to recent inventory data has tended to be negative, our commodity strategy colleagues point out, but price action in crude since last week has looked a little more constructive—even though there has been no change in adverse supply/demand dynamics.”
“Renewed weakness below $46/bbl would be a technical negative from a short-term point of view and drag on the CAD. Better data and/or a squeeze above $48 on the other hand would be constructive for crude’s prospects in the short-term at least and pull the CAD a little higher.”
“On the charts, short-term patterns highlight support at 1.2450 and resistance at 1.2550 rather nearly for the session ahead.”