25 Mar 2015
Key data events ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained and noted the forthcoming key events from the calendar starting in the US shift.
Key Quotes:
"The Fed’s Evans speaks on the economy and US monetary policy, where he can try again to finesse the message that everything is great, but not so great that anything much needs to be done immediately on US rates."
"We also have US durable goods orders, which will arguably speak louder than Evans. For two of the past three months this key series has been expected to show a big MoM gain and has instead seen a big MoM drop."
"Indeed, given we are supposed to be in full-on recovery mode in the US, one would expect that the YoY chart of durable goods orders would be a happy and healthy “V”-shape; yet on a core basis (i.e., orders excluding defence and aircraft) it actually looks more like a scrawled “M”. The consensus is for a slim 0.2% MoM rise in headline orders today, 0.2% excluding transport, and 0.3% core. Whether we see the start of a “V” or a continuation of the last leg of an “M” will arguably play a large role in the direction of both USD and bond yields today: either way we can expect significant volatility."
Key Quotes:
"The Fed’s Evans speaks on the economy and US monetary policy, where he can try again to finesse the message that everything is great, but not so great that anything much needs to be done immediately on US rates."
"We also have US durable goods orders, which will arguably speak louder than Evans. For two of the past three months this key series has been expected to show a big MoM gain and has instead seen a big MoM drop."
"Indeed, given we are supposed to be in full-on recovery mode in the US, one would expect that the YoY chart of durable goods orders would be a happy and healthy “V”-shape; yet on a core basis (i.e., orders excluding defence and aircraft) it actually looks more like a scrawled “M”. The consensus is for a slim 0.2% MoM rise in headline orders today, 0.2% excluding transport, and 0.3% core. Whether we see the start of a “V” or a continuation of the last leg of an “M” will arguably play a large role in the direction of both USD and bond yields today: either way we can expect significant volatility."