9 Mar 2015
USD/TRY could reach 2.85 in the medium term – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Emerging Markets Team at TD Securities, suggested the pair could reach the area of 2.85, even 3.00, in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“With USDTRY at around 2.60 at the time of writing, we think it is unlikely that the CBRT will cut rates next week”.
“Therefore, we believe we could get more consolidation around these levels before USDTRY moves higher again. But if and when the lira starts selling off again, the technical picture suggests 3.0 is the level that could be tested”.
“We now forecast USDTRY at 2.85 by Q4 2015, but see the possibility that the pair may test the 3.00 handle before the CBRT intervenes with measures supporting TRY (including monetary tightening that we continue to forecast in the fourth quarter)”.
“In 2016, a year that should feature a transition from strong USD focus to improving global prospects, we see the pair hovering in the mid 2.70s range”.
Key Quotes
“With USDTRY at around 2.60 at the time of writing, we think it is unlikely that the CBRT will cut rates next week”.
“Therefore, we believe we could get more consolidation around these levels before USDTRY moves higher again. But if and when the lira starts selling off again, the technical picture suggests 3.0 is the level that could be tested”.
“We now forecast USDTRY at 2.85 by Q4 2015, but see the possibility that the pair may test the 3.00 handle before the CBRT intervenes with measures supporting TRY (including monetary tightening that we continue to forecast in the fourth quarter)”.
“In 2016, a year that should feature a transition from strong USD focus to improving global prospects, we see the pair hovering in the mid 2.70s range”.