6 Mar 2015
FOMC to get less patient? – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Societe Generale Team forecasts NFP to print an above consensus number at 280k, which would be USD positive and negative for the EUR.
Key Quotes
“If NFP is strong (SG eco-peeps promise me 280k nfp, 5.5 u-rate, 2.1 av hrly earnings), we're on track for the FOMC to get less patient just as the ECB starts QE. Good for the dollar, good for European corporate bonds and equities, not so good for the Euro.”
“Meanwhile, European economic data are surprising on the upside. The risk of a short-covering rally in the Euro has been clear for some weeks now and perhaps it's smarter to look for alternatives.”
“Short GBP/SEK is an attractive long-term candidate...buy a bashed up currency where policy may finally be easy enough, and where the current a/c surplus is gigantic. Sell a stronger currency with twin deficits and the risk of a three-party minority government looming.”
Key Quotes
“If NFP is strong (SG eco-peeps promise me 280k nfp, 5.5 u-rate, 2.1 av hrly earnings), we're on track for the FOMC to get less patient just as the ECB starts QE. Good for the dollar, good for European corporate bonds and equities, not so good for the Euro.”
“Meanwhile, European economic data are surprising on the upside. The risk of a short-covering rally in the Euro has been clear for some weeks now and perhaps it's smarter to look for alternatives.”
“Short GBP/SEK is an attractive long-term candidate...buy a bashed up currency where policy may finally be easy enough, and where the current a/c surplus is gigantic. Sell a stronger currency with twin deficits and the risk of a three-party minority government looming.”