11 Jul 2013
Australia employment next: Impact on AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian employment report is due next - 1.30GMT - with expectations for a slight reduction in job creation, -2,500, as opposed to the increase in 1,100 seen in May. A rise in the jobless rate to 5.6% is also expected.
Uninspiring jobs outlook - NAB
According to the Team of Economists at NAB, "forecast is for a fall of 15K in employment, with our forecast taking into account the recent revisions to the labour force statistics which, after the May release, appear to show jobs growth plateauing over the three months to May."
NAB adds: "ABS Job Vacancies, ANZ Job Ads and DEWR Internet Vacancies have all been weak. Further, our NAB Survey measure of Employment has been trending lower during the first half of 2013. All of these indicators point to the trend in jobs growth weakening and unemployment rises."
AUD/USD reaction data dependent
Looking at the potential reaction in the AUD/USD, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, notes: "A reading in the unemployment rate above 5.6%, should put AUD under pressure, while the selling will likely intensify if the rate overcomes 5.8% a multiyear high. The movement will find support if the positions lost is further than expected."
On the flip side, Bednarik sees the AUD/USD getting buying interest on "A positive number, with the economy adding more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate below 5.5%, it may be the kick the currency needs to extend gains."
Uninspiring jobs outlook - NAB
According to the Team of Economists at NAB, "forecast is for a fall of 15K in employment, with our forecast taking into account the recent revisions to the labour force statistics which, after the May release, appear to show jobs growth plateauing over the three months to May."
NAB adds: "ABS Job Vacancies, ANZ Job Ads and DEWR Internet Vacancies have all been weak. Further, our NAB Survey measure of Employment has been trending lower during the first half of 2013. All of these indicators point to the trend in jobs growth weakening and unemployment rises."
AUD/USD reaction data dependent
Looking at the potential reaction in the AUD/USD, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, notes: "A reading in the unemployment rate above 5.6%, should put AUD under pressure, while the selling will likely intensify if the rate overcomes 5.8% a multiyear high. The movement will find support if the positions lost is further than expected."
On the flip side, Bednarik sees the AUD/USD getting buying interest on "A positive number, with the economy adding more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate below 5.5%, it may be the kick the currency needs to extend gains."