23 Feb 2015
Greek bank deposit outflows accelerate – JPM
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou of J.P.Morgan, comments that the stress and uncertainty surrounding the Eurogroup meetings has led to a modest acceleration in the deposit outlflows of Greek banks.
Key Quote
“Greek banks have likely used their maximum ELA limit of €68.3bn, and another €17bn or so was borrowed via regular ECB operations using EFSF bonds as collateral, to arrive at an estimated total central bank borrowing of close to €85bn currently. This means that they have another €8bn of unused EFSF bonds as collateral, which they keep in the (unlikely) event that the ECB stops increasing the ELA limit.”
“Of the €38bn of EFSF bonds, Greek banks had repoed around €13bn in private interbank markets on our calculations, so €25bn were available for ECB operations. And as mentioned above we believe €17bn has already been posted at the ECB for regular ECB operations.”
“We still stick to our projection that the limit on central borrowing based on collateral availability is close to €108bn for Greek banks and this means Greek banks have another €23bn or so before they reach this limit (again assuming current central bank borrowing of €85bn).”
“In all Greek bank deposit outflows accelerated modestly as a result of the stress surrounding the Eurogroup meetings of this past and the previous week, to around €3bn per week pace.”
“At this pace we note that Greek banks will have 8 weeks before they run out of collateral.”
Key Quote
“Greek banks have likely used their maximum ELA limit of €68.3bn, and another €17bn or so was borrowed via regular ECB operations using EFSF bonds as collateral, to arrive at an estimated total central bank borrowing of close to €85bn currently. This means that they have another €8bn of unused EFSF bonds as collateral, which they keep in the (unlikely) event that the ECB stops increasing the ELA limit.”
“Of the €38bn of EFSF bonds, Greek banks had repoed around €13bn in private interbank markets on our calculations, so €25bn were available for ECB operations. And as mentioned above we believe €17bn has already been posted at the ECB for regular ECB operations.”
“We still stick to our projection that the limit on central borrowing based on collateral availability is close to €108bn for Greek banks and this means Greek banks have another €23bn or so before they reach this limit (again assuming current central bank borrowing of €85bn).”
“In all Greek bank deposit outflows accelerated modestly as a result of the stress surrounding the Eurogroup meetings of this past and the previous week, to around €3bn per week pace.”
“At this pace we note that Greek banks will have 8 weeks before they run out of collateral.”