19 Feb 2015
AUD/USD: 0.7597 lows slipping into the distance
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7810 with a high of 0.7819 and a low of 0.7802.
AUD/USD has pulled back a tad from the post FOMC highs on the spike that came on a neutral Fed who are still prepared to hold out while future decisions will continue to depend on data. Essentially, there has been no change to their outlook and markets might have got ahead of the curve in timings looking for a rate hike as soon as this quarter or even in June for that matter.
There is the argument, nevertheless, that a hike sooner than later will allow for a more comfortable landing, easing their way into a tighter regime on monetary policy, and for that matter depending on data between now and June, the June window is still an open one. Yellen is testifying next week and this may well clear up some of the greyness. Until then, the RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions for Jan are due later on, private cap expenditure and new home sales are next week.
AUD/USD is otherwise capped by the 20 DMA at 0.7819 so far while the lows at the base of the 2013-2015 down channel are slipping into the distance at 0.7597. Bulls looking to break up will have the 0.8012 and the 7th Jan lows at 0.8034 in sight, as suggested by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank. "A close above here is needed to alleviate downside pressure. Below 0.7597 we have very little support apart from the 0.7335, 50% retracement of the move up from 2001."
AUD/USD has pulled back a tad from the post FOMC highs on the spike that came on a neutral Fed who are still prepared to hold out while future decisions will continue to depend on data. Essentially, there has been no change to their outlook and markets might have got ahead of the curve in timings looking for a rate hike as soon as this quarter or even in June for that matter.
There is the argument, nevertheless, that a hike sooner than later will allow for a more comfortable landing, easing their way into a tighter regime on monetary policy, and for that matter depending on data between now and June, the June window is still an open one. Yellen is testifying next week and this may well clear up some of the greyness. Until then, the RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions for Jan are due later on, private cap expenditure and new home sales are next week.
AUD/USD is otherwise capped by the 20 DMA at 0.7819 so far while the lows at the base of the 2013-2015 down channel are slipping into the distance at 0.7597. Bulls looking to break up will have the 0.8012 and the 7th Jan lows at 0.8034 in sight, as suggested by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank. "A close above here is needed to alleviate downside pressure. Below 0.7597 we have very little support apart from the 0.7335, 50% retracement of the move up from 2001."