18 Feb 2015
USD/CAD sees intraday upside risks – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, views USD/CAD still possesses some downside risks over the next few weeks, but intraday risks are skewed to the upside towards upper 1.24s/low 1.25s area.
Key Quotes
“A generally stronger USD alongside a dip in commodity prices has served to push USDCAD a little higher on the day so far.”
“The CAD is one of the worst-performing G-10 currencies on the session so far, with only the SEK trading weaker than the CAD overall at this point.”
“With little in terms of news moving the markets overnight, we are loathe to assume that this is the start of a new phase of movement in spot, however.”
“Rather, we think USDCAD is liable to range trade for a little longer; that does not preclude a run up to the 1.26 area again potentially but the recent swing lower has robbed the market of a lot of the positive momentum that had accumulated earlier in January and we rather think the USD needs to work off a little more of its overbought condition before it can move higher in the medium-term.”
“There is still some downside risk in USDCAD over the next few weeks, we think.”
“Better-than-consensus Canadian wholesale trade may give the CAD a modest lift but we are above consensus for this morning’s US data releases too and better IP data in the US is liable to provide the USD with relatively better underpinning.”
“Having found firm support yesterday in the mid/upper 1.23s yesterday, ahead of where we thought the market might base, and regained the low 1.24 area, intraday risks are skewed towards USDCAD rising to the upper 1.24s/low 1.25s.”
Key Quotes
“A generally stronger USD alongside a dip in commodity prices has served to push USDCAD a little higher on the day so far.”
“The CAD is one of the worst-performing G-10 currencies on the session so far, with only the SEK trading weaker than the CAD overall at this point.”
“With little in terms of news moving the markets overnight, we are loathe to assume that this is the start of a new phase of movement in spot, however.”
“Rather, we think USDCAD is liable to range trade for a little longer; that does not preclude a run up to the 1.26 area again potentially but the recent swing lower has robbed the market of a lot of the positive momentum that had accumulated earlier in January and we rather think the USD needs to work off a little more of its overbought condition before it can move higher in the medium-term.”
“There is still some downside risk in USDCAD over the next few weeks, we think.”
“Better-than-consensus Canadian wholesale trade may give the CAD a modest lift but we are above consensus for this morning’s US data releases too and better IP data in the US is liable to provide the USD with relatively better underpinning.”
“Having found firm support yesterday in the mid/upper 1.23s yesterday, ahead of where we thought the market might base, and regained the low 1.24 area, intraday risks are skewed towards USDCAD rising to the upper 1.24s/low 1.25s.”