Flash: What can we expect from the EUR/USD – UBS and Commerzbank

Fxstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The euro is clinging to the positive ground on Friday, hovering over the mid 1.30s after hitting fresh session peaks in the boundaries of 1.3080. Mixed results from German retails sales plus improvements in French Consumer Spending and Italian Business Confidence seem to be limiting the downside so far.

The Swiss lender UBS remains bearish on the pair, with Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry commenting, “With the MAD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3151”.

In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested, “We continue to look for rebounds to be relatively tepid, and intraday these are expected to struggle at 1.3050/90. We maintain a negative stance longer term while capped by 1.3427/46, the 200 week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line”.

Italy Business Confidence increase to 90.2 in June from 88.7 in May

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Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes claims that France only has a small chance of hitting its deficit targets this year.
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