21 Jan 2015
BoJ, Obama, BoE, BoC ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events for the day ahead, highlighting the BoJ meeting, US President Obama speech, BoE minutes and BoC policy meeting.
Key Quotes
"The only notable data in Australia this week is the Jan consumer sentiment survey from Westpac & Melbourne Institute (10:30am Syd/7:30am Sing/HK). Sentiment in Dec was very weak, -5.7% m/m at 91.1, a low since Aug 2011 and before that, May 2009. Summer holidays boost sentiment every Jan but this effect is seasonally adjusted."
"The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting concludes today, with no fixed time as usual. The most likely window is the hour after 11:30am Tokyo/1:30pm Syd/10:30am Sing/HK. There is almost no chance of any change in the pace of QE. But with the inflation outlook waning once again, there has been some talk of at least some policy tweaks this time. This might include extension of targeted lending programs."
"President Obama delivers the State of the Union address to Congress from 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK. While much of the speech is likely to be focused on the economy, there is no history of impact on FX markets, especially as many of the ideas have no real chance of becoming law."
"In the UK, unemployment for Dec will be released. The consensus is -25k compared to -27k in Nov. The unemployment rate (Sep-Nov) is expected to dip from 6.0% to 5.9%. The Bank of England’s MPC meeting minutes are also due. The last vote was 7:2, and the case for a rate rise in the near term has diminished significantly, with softer data and falling inflation."
"We are expecting the US Dec housing starts to continue to show a picture of stalled recovery in the market. The Westpac forecast is -2.0%, while market median is 1.2%. There should be, however, a pick up in housing permits. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep policy firmly on hold, with some risk of a more dovish statement given the energy price slide. In their last statement, they noted that “Overall, the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate”."
Key Quotes
"The only notable data in Australia this week is the Jan consumer sentiment survey from Westpac & Melbourne Institute (10:30am Syd/7:30am Sing/HK). Sentiment in Dec was very weak, -5.7% m/m at 91.1, a low since Aug 2011 and before that, May 2009. Summer holidays boost sentiment every Jan but this effect is seasonally adjusted."
"The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting concludes today, with no fixed time as usual. The most likely window is the hour after 11:30am Tokyo/1:30pm Syd/10:30am Sing/HK. There is almost no chance of any change in the pace of QE. But with the inflation outlook waning once again, there has been some talk of at least some policy tweaks this time. This might include extension of targeted lending programs."
"President Obama delivers the State of the Union address to Congress from 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK. While much of the speech is likely to be focused on the economy, there is no history of impact on FX markets, especially as many of the ideas have no real chance of becoming law."
"In the UK, unemployment for Dec will be released. The consensus is -25k compared to -27k in Nov. The unemployment rate (Sep-Nov) is expected to dip from 6.0% to 5.9%. The Bank of England’s MPC meeting minutes are also due. The last vote was 7:2, and the case for a rate rise in the near term has diminished significantly, with softer data and falling inflation."
"We are expecting the US Dec housing starts to continue to show a picture of stalled recovery in the market. The Westpac forecast is -2.0%, while market median is 1.2%. There should be, however, a pick up in housing permits. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep policy firmly on hold, with some risk of a more dovish statement given the energy price slide. In their last statement, they noted that “Overall, the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate”."