19 Dec 2014
US jobless claims print points towards a strong NFP number in December – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to the Research Analysts at Nomura, the below than consensus (295k) print in initial jobless claims of 289k points towards another solid nonfarm payroll number in December.
Key Quotes
“Initial jobless claims were 289k in the week ending 13 December, the BLS survey week. For the week ending 6 December, continuing claims returned back to near trend to 2373k, after jumping to 2520k in the prior week. We suspect that last week‟s print was affected by seasonal factors as it tends to be difficult to seasonally adjust during the holiday period. The sub-300k print in initial jobless claims point to another solid nonfarm payroll number in December.”
“After jumping to 40.8 in November, the Philly Fed manufacturing index returned back to trend to 24.5 in December and broadly in line with market expectations (Nomura: 25.0, Consensus: 26.0). Overall, the details of this report for December were weaker than expected, but still points to continued expansion in manufacturing activity and runs counter to what we saw in the Empire State manufacturing survey on Monday.”
“The leading index increased by 0.6 points in November following a similar revised increase in October (previously reported as a 0.9% increase). Improving financial conditions and stronger ISM new orders index in November helped push the leading index higher. In contrast, higher jobless claims and decline in building permits in November contributed negatively to the index.”
“Looking ahead, recent volatility in financial markets will likely weigh on the index in December.”
Key Quotes
“Initial jobless claims were 289k in the week ending 13 December, the BLS survey week. For the week ending 6 December, continuing claims returned back to near trend to 2373k, after jumping to 2520k in the prior week. We suspect that last week‟s print was affected by seasonal factors as it tends to be difficult to seasonally adjust during the holiday period. The sub-300k print in initial jobless claims point to another solid nonfarm payroll number in December.”
“After jumping to 40.8 in November, the Philly Fed manufacturing index returned back to trend to 24.5 in December and broadly in line with market expectations (Nomura: 25.0, Consensus: 26.0). Overall, the details of this report for December were weaker than expected, but still points to continued expansion in manufacturing activity and runs counter to what we saw in the Empire State manufacturing survey on Monday.”
“The leading index increased by 0.6 points in November following a similar revised increase in October (previously reported as a 0.9% increase). Improving financial conditions and stronger ISM new orders index in November helped push the leading index higher. In contrast, higher jobless claims and decline in building permits in November contributed negatively to the index.”
“Looking ahead, recent volatility in financial markets will likely weigh on the index in December.”