18 Dec 2014
Oil price to bottom when non-OPEC output rise halts – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team expects Brent crude to bottom out at USD 58/bbl in the first quarter of 2015, further anticipating oil to recover to USD 85/bbl in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“We expect the current slide in oil prices to continue until we see producers starting to adjust to the lower prices by lowering output around mid next year.”
“Based on the difference in crude oil prices and production costs, producers of unconventional oil in, for example, the US, Canada and Brazil look more vulnerable.”
“We see some probability of a cut in OPEC's output target in June. Pricing in the forward market and the experience of the 1986 oil glut indicates that the price of Brent crude oil will recover to USD85/bl in the medium term.”
“We have revised down our oil-price forecasts. We now expect the price of Brent crude oil to bottom in Q1 next year at around USD58/bl (revised down from USD87/bl) and average USD67/bl in 2015 and USD85/bl in 2016 respectively (revised down from USD93/bl and USD99/bl).”
Key Quotes
“We expect the current slide in oil prices to continue until we see producers starting to adjust to the lower prices by lowering output around mid next year.”
“Based on the difference in crude oil prices and production costs, producers of unconventional oil in, for example, the US, Canada and Brazil look more vulnerable.”
“We see some probability of a cut in OPEC's output target in June. Pricing in the forward market and the experience of the 1986 oil glut indicates that the price of Brent crude oil will recover to USD85/bl in the medium term.”
“We have revised down our oil-price forecasts. We now expect the price of Brent crude oil to bottom in Q1 next year at around USD58/bl (revised down from USD87/bl) and average USD67/bl in 2015 and USD85/bl in 2016 respectively (revised down from USD93/bl and USD99/bl).”